The news appeared at the beginning of the week, but I saw it only today, and in general, for some reason, many large sites, even those specializing in automotive topics, bypassed it.
So, according to the source, already in 2035, China may prohibit the sale of new cars equipped exclusively with an internal combustion engine. That is, all new cars will be at least hybrid, and preferably fully electric.
On the one hand, there is nothing special in the news – many European countries have already announced similar plans. For example, the UK is going to do the same in the same 2035, and Norway does intend to do it as early as 2025. However, neither Britain nor Norway is far from China.
In case you didn’t know, China is the largest automotive market and also the largest market for electric vehicles. For example, in the first half of this year, 7.5 million new passenger cars were sold in China. For comparison, 6.5 million were sold in the United States, and only 1.8 million were sold in Japan, which is immediately behind them. In the UK, by the way, 650,000.
If we talk about electric vehicles, hybrids and other similar cars, then in 2019 1.2 million of them were sold in China, and this is about the same as in the rest of the world together!
Now imagine that this market, which is most desirable for many auto giants, changes its vector quite dramatically. Yes, 2035 is still a long way off, but the goal is not achieved instantly.
I am not an automotive journalist, I clearly do not have certain statistics and knowledge, but to understand at least the approximate scale of changes, you just need to look at the numbers and be able to compare them.
For example, we take data on sales of electric vehicles, and we see that in China, local brands like BYD, BAIC and so on are very actively buying. And now we take the statistics of sales of ordinary cars in the Middle Kingdom.
And here Volkswagen, Toytota, Honda and a bunch of other non-Chinese companies are already in the lead. What does this mean? This suggests that now these companies urgently need to start rebuilding their business in China in such a way as to focus on electric vehicles, moreover, competitive in the local market. And since the automotive world is ruled by globalization and unification, the process of restructuring the business as a whole should be global, and not just for the Chinese.
I think that in the next two or three years we will see the first significant steps regarding this process, although in general it has already been launched.
But it’s not just about the car market. The faster the automotive industry moves to alternative energy sources, the faster the global economy will change as it loses its dependence on oil. And this will especially affect those countries that are too dependent on this oil.
In general, all this has already been discussed, but in connection with the new Chinese plans, all this becomes much more interesting.
As for the plans, the source claims that they became known from the roadmap of the organization of automobile experts in China. The report was created under the leadership of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, that is, it seems like this is a really approved or pending state plan.
It is expected that in the same year 2035, half of all new cars sold in China will be hybrid, and the other half will be electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids (yes, they were taken out separately) and hydrogen.