Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, who is known for his accurate predictions about Apple’s new products, is convinced that the base model with a 6.1-inch screen will be the most popular in the iPhone 12 line.
Apple will be holding its second fall “Hi, Speed” launch tonight for the next generation iPhone. A total of four new iPhone models are expected: the 5.4-inch iPhone 12 Mini, the 6.1-inch iPhone 12, the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and the 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max. The expected starting price of the iPhone 12 Mini is $ 699, the iPhone 12 is $ 799, the iPhone 12 Pro is $ 999, and the iPhone 12 Pro Max is $ 1099. All will get the flat-edged design of the latest iPad Pro and iPad Air, improved performance (5G, OLED Super Retina XDR screens with Ceramic Shield, and 5nm SoC A14) and new functionality.
According to the analyst’s forecast, the base model with a 6.1-inch screen will be the most popular in the iPhone 12 line. That is, the iPhone 11 as the most popular smartphone will not be replaced by the more affordable and compact iPhone 12 Mini with a 5.4-inch screen, and the base iPhone 12 with a 6.1-inch screen. In the sales structure of the iPhone 12 line, the share of the base model with a 6.1-inch screen will be 40-45%, the analyst predicts. That is, roughly speaking, every second new iPhone 12 buyer will choose a 6.1-inch model. By the way, in the 1-3 quarters of 2020, the iPhone 11 accounted for about 70-75% of the total shipments of the iPhone 11 series. The 5.4-inch iPhone 12 Mini will account for 20-25% of all shipments of the new series of Apple smartphones , and the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max will receive 15-20% each, the analyst said.
Min-Chi Kuo notes that the base iPhone 12 offers the right screen size and starting price, two factors that will help it become a bestseller. According to Kuo, Apple has placed orders for the release of 80-85 million iPhone 12 smartphones by the end of the year, which exceeds the volume of orders for the iPhone 11 last year (75 million). At the same time, the analyst stipulates that due to the later start, the actual sales of the iPhone 12 in the fourth quarter of 2020 are likely to be lower than the result of the iPhone 11 in the same period last year.